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I’m not a local here but the neighbouring seats Labor appears to be serious trouble. Labor hold with a swing against them.
@Spacefish the other parts of Newcastle are different demographically to the seat of Newcastle itself. The seat of Newcastle itself is a mix of progressive, working-class and affluent/small-l-liberal suburbs. Hunter, Paterson and Shortland are white working-class seats (though Paterson and Shortland have some middle-class areas).
I could see this being a Greens target a few elections down the track particularly if the Greens could snag the state seat of Newcastle.
@Redistributed I doubt it. The Greens being woke and radical won’t resonate here just like it doesn’t resonate in Brisbane.
Newcastle isn’t like the capital city CBD seats. The Greens are way off from winning. They may enter the 2PP at best.
The western suburbs of Newcastle are less Green and have more ALP vs LIB contests. Some parts like Maryland and Minmi are very working class.
Newcastle has a massive proportion of welfare dependent and social housing voters on its western end and scattered through its northern suburbs (Mayfield). Naturally these voters don’t side with the Libs but they don’t like the Greens just as much.
Many white/blue collar voters also appear to be particularly unionized (nurses, teachers, university etc), which is why the Greens haven’t gained traction. The Greens also appear to select more ‘alternate looking’ candidates that don’t really speak to the working class or the small-I-Liberals.
Until the Greens can place second on FP AND the Libs preference them before Labor (it’s possible, if they play nice) they’re not going to come close.
@electioneer this is a working class seat noone but Labor will ever win here
@John: Don’t confuse welfare dependent and social housing with working class when looking at voting trends.
Where I was going, was, look at the Teal Party as an example, they came second on the FP to the Libs in Wentworth, Mackellar, North Sydney, Goldstein and Curtin but were pushed across the line on the 2PP by Greens and Labor preferences. There’s no reason the same can’t happen here for the Greens if the Libs decide to be strategic and deprive Labor of a majority by putting a Green in Newcastle. Problem is their candidates aren’t acceptable to mainstream Labor and Liberal voters (and constantly push far-left issues in local government which is a big turn-off) to get them into 2nd position on the FP across the seat.
Good evening from freezing Liverpool, UK.
I used to live in Newcastle. This is a mixed seat and there are areas where the Liberals do well but Newcastle has working-class and progressive areas that will vote Labor. However it’s not a seat I can ever see the Greens winning.
The only way the Liberals would win the FEDERAL seat of Newcastle would be in a big landslide. As for the state seat it would depend on the boundaries but still unlikely at the moment.
@electioneer the Libs learned their lesson in Melbourne in 2010 when they got Bandt in to do exactly that. They won’t be doing that again. Besides here there is a decent right wing vote outside of the Libs UAP and ONP that will back Labor over greens also the Labor vote is simply too high and the grn vote is too low atm for that to happen. Unlike teal seats the greens cant rely on an absolute flow of preferences.
@np libs will never win this seat the left accounts for about 2/3 of the vote here. This is literally Labor safest seat in the country